Blackberry is Dead, Why the IPhone May Be Next

If ever that could be true, it probably still stands a long way off. After all, Apple has a knack for surprising people and yeah, indeed upturning the whole “apple-cart”.

They did it with the iPhone, they did it with IPod, they are doing it with Apple pay and sometime not too far in the near future they’ll probably do it for the apps you’ll use in your driver-less car- be that a Tesla or Google brand. But before we go out that far, closer to the present, my simple reply to you is… don’t be so sure. Rather than doing it again, Apple may about to become the one getting done.

 Indeed if going by the trend of things, Android may just be about to give apple a taste of its own medicine, yep-upset Apples whole IPhone Apple cart.

If you have read one of my previous articles The Death of Blackberry and why you should buy an Android phone now, it should be obvious to you pretty quickly, up just what tree I’m barking. Yes you’re spot on. I’m talking about the Smart phone market and Googles or should I say Androids, virtual cornering of it.

But if the above premise evident in the articles title is true, why then did I start with the IPhone, the IOS? Why not Microsoft and its Windows phone operating system? After all from the last look it is pretty obvious that with its mere 0.4% of the global smart phone market, its year on Smart phone losses and Microsoft's own admittance of its Nokia acquisition a mistake, Windows OS seems rather, a much better candidate for this story. Maybe. But why bother with the obvious, when danger to one so impact-ful remains not so?

Besides, Microsoft has an established history of running aground promising brands- and everybody already knows that. Take Skype for example. Skype should have been the Whats App/Instagram killer app for both private and business use but somewhere along the line, Microsoft obfuscated and messed things up. Tell me the last time you used Skype. Now tell me the last time you used WhatsApp or WeChat. Exactly. As such the death of the windows phone would not be so surprising (although in reality I don’t think Microsoft will ever let this OS die-they are too invested in it).

On the other hand, from an editorial point of view, the choice for my article makes more sense-it makes for better reading. So okay, enough said. IOS it is not Windows. The danger-Android it is and not Microsoft. Still unconvinced? Well, let’s take a look at the stats.

According to Com Score US smartphone industry report for January 2016, although Apple took home the trophy as the number 1 smart phone manufacturer with 43.6 percent of OEM market share, when it came to smart phone platforms, Apples IOS turned runner-up with 43.6% (notice the close parallel between its smartphone market share and platform share) to (Google) Androids dominant 52.8 percent, to crown Android as the number 1 platform of choice. And remember this is just January 2016 figures. The real story by now is far direr.

But even if we are to work with the early 2016 figures, even if we could be persuaded that on the face of it, those figures aren’t so bad, what comes next should quickly sober you up; Apple recently announced its third consecutive quarterly drop in sales for the fiscal fourth quarter ended September 24. This means that altogether revenue shrunk from 9.8 percent to $46.9 billion with profit falling 23 percent to $9 billion from the same period one year earlier. That represents Apples first annual revenue drop since 2001- a sure sign that the US smart phone market is getting at least for the IPhone anyway, pretty much saturated.

Worse the figure equally shows clearly that the Chinese market off which IOS and Apple have been fattening for some time now, is finally beginning to mature. Being Apples fastest growing market for several quarters running, that picture now is no longer true. This quarter saw Apple taking a 30 percent year over year decline in sales from the market.

From a global perspective, the story only gets worse. In terms of market share Android leads the way with 87.6% of the market (an increase of 4.2 % over its 2016 first quarterly figures) whereas IOS has 11.7% falling by 3.7 percentage points from its 15.4% figure in the first quarter of the year. And with Windows OS making up just 0.4% and 0.3% going to others, it is fair to say quite literally that IOS losses is clearly reflected in androids gain.

What this means is that since IOS as a platform is strictly limited to IPhone or Apple products, as these sales wane, with the corollary of Android phones waxing, IOS as a platform will ultimately continue to decline.

When you consider this with the fact that with scale comes greater opportunities for partnerships, then as more corporates, businesses and people in general go android, it will only serve as a strong incentive for developers to opt for Android over IOS.  

So what should Apple do to stymie the tide? What actions should the company, not to repeat the mistakes of RIM and its erstwhile Blackberry brand, do now while it is still early days, to stay the damage? Simple. The first thing is for Apple to determine when its flagship OS has reached its medium return curve. I am not an economist and I’m sure there is a better economic term for what I mean, but let me get literal and take some time to explain.

IOS as an IPhone bound platform has obviously reached its zenith, it has peaked, plateaued and is in decline. Let’s face it, Mr Tim there is no resurgence or rebound from here on. IOS sales are going to keep going down. However before it reaches rock bottom, it will continue to be sold and to turn a profit for the company even though sales progressively decline.

The median curve throughout all this, represents on one hand that point in sales return, the most efficient point where an equilibrium will be struck in terms of the maximum number of Apples flagship IPhones that can be sold without losses whilst on the other, it leases the Operating system to interested parties, the handset consortium etc., to use on their hardware. Yes, the point at which it will be most profitable to release the operating system from the shackles of its IPhone master whilst continuing to sell the IPhone as a phone brand distinct from its leased operating system.

The advantage of this strategy is that Apples IPhone can continue to serve as the IOS flagship brand much like Samsung does unofficially for Googles Android, whilst at the same time Apple as a company gets a very nice piece of the action from the operations of its IOS leasing global partners.

This latter is not however the cream of the strategy. That lies solely in the fact that it will stave off the market decline of IOS as a mobile platform, a thing sure to happen as developers and end users both, dump IOS and move over to Android.

What just such a move on the part of Apple will in effect do, is enable manufacturers make cheaper IPhone like devices for the hitherto unreachable markets of developing nations. Markets which would up till then, have been kept off the IPhone train because of the exorbitant price of the phones.

Still need convincing? Okay here then is a succinct corollary. Remember that history repeats itself and if you have been paying attention you will realize that this has happened before-and no I’m not talking about Blackberry. I’m referring to a totally different kettle of fish here. Yep, you got that right- the car industry. The fairy tale of “Toyota and the Big Three”. How does that story go? Well let’s see.

 Indisputably, today Toyota is King. Right from the urban and not so urban areas of the US and Europe to the coastal cities and territories of Africa and other climes. Toyota has been the number one auto-maker for going on 9 years straight now (according to BrandZ Top 100 Most Valuable Global Brands list report and industry stats ). That is a fact. But it was not always so.

For most African countries without an indigenous car manufacturing or national car brand of their own, this may appear understandable. But not so the US, with its proud history of car mass production and assembly line technology. Holla Ford, Holla General Motors, holla Chrysler, holla…a whole host of others.

But over the decade what did we see happen? Toyota, the little Japanese car manufacturing outfit, the underdog outsider. The little guy, entered the North American market at the low end, but by the turn of the decade had become the star of the whole show. And the funny thing is- the so called “Big Three” let it happen.

 Toyota, having entered the North American territories at the low end of the market, “the big three” suddenly finding that they could no longer compete, instead of striving to do just that, allowed themselves the myopic argument of cutting their losses and moved on to the next upper segment.

But what happened when Toyota in turn moved into that segment? The very same thing; “Okay boys, let’s cut our losses and move on up” Every single time, the big three experiencing the same competitive squeeze, would cut their losses, ship out and concentrate on the upper next segment.

And so the story went, up and up the premium ladder until they got pushed so far up, right up to the luxury line that there was no longer any place else to go. And finally when they could no longer compete even in that, bust set in and federal bailout became the only option.

And while all this was happening, where was Toyota to be found? Silently behind, cleaning out the pantry and quietly wiping its lips. Well thank god the company-Google, or should I say Alphabet, is an American one this time. Really? Well right now that is irrelevant because the same thing is about to happen to the IPhone. But it’s worse because, the low end of the market is already decidedly Androids-no questions asked.

Android has straight on, gone to meet IOS in its premium Smartphone play field. Nothing like the intermediary low or middle cadre markets for the two to first battle, IOS to get its nose bloodied, learn a few things and steady itself for the fight ahead. Nope, no such Big Three “luck” for the IPhone here. As sure as rain as the sky is blue, IPhone the same thing is about to happen to you.

Least of all not because the latest IPhone-the Iphone 7 Plus, brings nothing remarkably new to market; No augmented or virtual reality technology, no market shaking, disruptive technology or specs as it did of yore. Just more of the same.

To make matters worse changes to Apples iconic Mac books now means that you might not be able to easily connect your IPhone to your “IBook”. In today’s world of corporate finesse, global designs and formula 1 ethos, the ability to thrive is not borne out by a company’s nationality but rather its speed and resilience. The strategy enunciated above needs to be considered now before the IPhone too starts to lose its mojo and Africa and other developing climes as happened with Blackberry becomes the dumping ground for UK and American used IPhones.

 Indeed it may make a brief splash but believe me should it come to that, that initial splash will be very brief. The unfortunate thing though, will be that by then, nobody, least of all the average Nigerian will give a hoot. No, long before that, Android already closeted in the hands of many, would have equally become ensconced within the hearts of every Chukwudi, Lola and Ahmed. Trust me, the IPhone would, as is the trend with English Premier League footballers who transition to American or Chinese leagues, have only come to Africa to retire.

 Apple and Iphone cannot afford to wait. They should not allow themselves the gross premise that their cloud, watch or AI business will cover up for whatever losses they stand to take from this IOS debacle.

They must get their quant guys on it now and start executing. Like the fall of all great giants, believe me a point is reached where once crossed, the best physician in the world be he Hippocrates or John S. Chen, shall never a cure to what ail-eth provide. Blackberry as we once knew it is dead. As if by turn, the IPhone stands at the fork of that same road. Dear Mr. Tim, believe you me, the road less taken should be taken now. That is what will make the difference.